Understanding distributions

A distribution is a visual tool to easier understand how the outcomes of a path are distributed.

Looking at the screenshot below, one can see that the expected value is distributed on both sides of zero, but we (marginally) expect a positive return.

Constants

When working with distribution charts, constants can be challenging. Using the same example, but changing alternative A to a constant of -$1000, will “overpower” the rest of the chart, as there is 100% certain that that a constant will hit a value, while the rest of the chart is distributed over thousands of data points.

Optimal path

A distribution will show the distribution of the optimal path, should there be a decision node in the path.